Mexican President Floats New Deal With Trump
President Bernardo Arévalo meets with Claudia Sheibaun of Mexico and Yamandú Orsi of Uruguay at CELAC in Honduras. Photo courtesy of the Government of Guatemala. Public domain.
In a move that stunned Washington and electrified Mexico City, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has reportedly proposed a sweeping new agreement to Donald Trump, covering immigration, security, and trade, and offering the president a rare opportunity to reshape the volatile U.S.–Mexico relationship on his own terms.
But is it diplomacy or theater?
The Phone Call That Sparked Headlines
The bombshell came on in June 2025, when Sheinbaum announced during a daily morning press conference that she had spoken with Trump just one day earlier. While Trump was cutting his G7 visit short to handle unrest in the Middle East, Sheinbaum was dialing him up with what she called a "general agreement" that would address three of the hottest flashpoints between the two countries — immigration, border security, and trade — according to Pressenza.com.
It was their seventh call since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, and this one came with more than polite pleasantries. "I also highlighted the importance of recognizing Mexicans in the United States, families who have lived there for years and contribute to the country's economy," Sheinbaum said, according to Pressenza.com.
Trump, never one to pass up a chance to make a deal, reportedly welcomed the proposal and invited Sheinbaum to Washington. No date has been set for that visit, but the invitation alone is telling.
What's in the Deal?
Details remain vague, but sources in both governments say the Sheinbaum proposal is a high-level framework — not a line-item trade agreement or policy memo. Think big themes, such as keeping the border "much more secure," lowering the number of migrant crossings (which Sheinbaum claims is already happening), and tackling the tariffs that are rattling trade and diplomatic ties, according to Pressenza.com.
The proposal also comes amid ongoing talks over the 50% steel tariffs Trump imposed in June 2025 — a move that blindsided Mexican officials and sparked fierce backlash in Mexico's business sector.
Sheinbaum has labeled the tariffs "unjust," noting that Mexico actually imports more steel and aluminum from the U.S. than it exports — hardly the kind of trade imbalance Trump claims to be fixing, according to Mexico News Daily.
The working solution? A potential quota system that would allow up to 2.79 million metric tonnes of Mexican steel to enter the U.S. annually without triggering the full 50% tariff. Anything above that amount would still be taxed heavily, a compromise that could give Trump political cover at home while easing tensions with a key trading partner.
What's in It for Trump?
On paper, it's everything Trump loves — a bold, bilateral deal with his name on it, bypassing the usual red tape of multilateral treaties. He gets a stage. He gets headlines. And most importantly, he gets leverage.
The proposal also allows Trump to ease off the gas on tariffs without looking weak. Framing it as a Trump-negotiated deal to protect American steel and demand immigration concessions from Mexico plays well with his base and the industrial Midwest.
Plus, a high-profile meeting with Mexico's first female president gives Trump a chance to look statesmanlike while signaling his return to the center of global negotiations.
And What Does Sheinbaum Gain?
For Sheinbaum, who just took office, this is a calculated gamble. By going directly to Trump and proposing a comprehensive deal, she's asserting herself as a pragmatic power player, not just another Latin American leader hoping to dodge the wrath of Trump-era tariffs.
She's also offering Trump something few foreign leaders can — a chance to claim a second-term victory on immigration, which is one of his most polarizing issues. If handled correctly, Sheinbaum's offer could also reduce tensions over deportation flights, border security funding, and drug enforcement efforts — all hot-button issues with shared consequences.
And then there's the optics: a female, leftist president offering a deal to a conservative U.S. president known for his hardline rhetoric on Mexico.
That's not just diplomacy — it's a political stage worth taking.
But Not Everyone's Buying It
Still, not everyone sees this as a golden handshake.
Some U.S. officials have expressed concerns about the timing and Sheinbaum's motives — suggesting the deal may be more about optics than substance. The Trump administration, already battling legal challenges over the sweeping tariffs and facing pressure from U.S. automakers who rely on Mexican steel, could be seen as negotiating from a position of weakness.
Meanwhile, Sheinbaum's critics in Mexico argue the proposal concedes too much — particularly on immigration — and could open the door to more U.S. involvement in Mexico's domestic security decisions.
And then there's the practical reality that even if the two leaders shake hands on a deal, getting it implemented, especially one that touches border enforcement, deportation practices, and steel import quotas, is far more complicated than a phone call or a photo op.
The Next Chapter
Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard is expected to visit Washington to hammer out the trade side of the deal, while security and immigration issues will be routed through the U.S. State Department — another sign that both sides are taking this seriously, but also treating it as a slow burn rather than a done deal.
For now, all eyes are on the next meeting — and whether this budding deal ends up being the next NAFTA-style realignment... or just another headline.
References: Mexico proposes broad deal with U.S. covering security, immigration, trade | Mexico close to striking a deal on US steel tariffs, Bloomberg reports | Confused about where things stand with Trump's tariffs? Here's a handy primer | US, Mexico discuss deal to cut Trump's steel tariffs, sources say
